“We really have a sophisticated meteorological models to predict climate change,” said Mark Urban Ecology, lead author of the study looks at whether climate models currently understand the true species competition and movement, and therefore, the impact of future climate be on animals.
“But in real life, the animal moves, they contend, they parasitize each other, and they ate each other. Most of our predictions did not include this important interaction. “
Urban, who is Assistant Professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Connecticut, noted that while there are many studies that have shown the species that move in response to climate change, often seeking higher elevations where temperatures are cooler in which to survive, the model does not always acknowledge the fact that some species simply cannot disperse fast enough. Moreover, even if the type of animal or plant can dissolve quickly enough, they may be outcompeted by the species already living at high altitude, or people who have beaten them to it.
Along with his friends Josh Tewksbury and Kimberly Sheldon of the University of Washington, creating a mathematical model which Urban takes into account the different levels of migration and different intensity of competition seen in ecological communities. Their goal is to put themselves in a position to predict the success of the migration to a new habitat at all.